Mathematical modeling of pertussis transmission and parameters estimation

Yueping Dong

Central China Normal University

Abstract

In this talk, we introduce several mathematical models to investigate the dynamics of pertussis transmission considering the resurgence of pertussis. Especially, the force of infection and seroincidence of pertussis in Japan were estimated by employing a time- and age-dependent transmission model and maximum likelihood method. The seroincidence exhibited a bimodal pattern with a peak in adolescent and the other peak in elderly. Among adolescents, the seroincidence was estimated at 0.053, 0.089 and 0.03 per year in 2003, 2008 and 2013, respectively. While a strong age-dependence was observed in the force of infection, the time-dependence was limited from 2003-13. Overall, the estimates of both the force of infection and seroincidence were broadly consistent with those reported from western European countries. The proposed models can also be used to evaluate the revaccination strategies.